Adverse Home Country Shocks, Invention Migration, and Geography of Innovation
How do adverse country shocks reallocate inventors globally and reshape the geography of frontier innovation?
Full Abstract
When home-country conditions deteriorate, who leaves, and where does their talent go? We develop a theoretical framework linking adverse conditions to migration, recruitment, and innovation. Linking USPTO records of granted patents and published applications, we follow 1.23 million inventors around 47 adverse country events since 1985. Shocks raise the annual probability of moving to the United States by 0.8 percentage points, about 70 percent of the baseline rate. The increase is similar for star and non-star inventors and larger after political and economic deterioration than security and conflict events. U.S. firms with prior business ties to affected countries hire more inventors from those origins, including stars, and subsequently produce more high-impact patents, with no significant increase in total patent counts. Recruited inventors participate directly in these inventions, while aggregate patenting declines in the origin countries. Chinese-origin departures also rise at firms with federal research ties following the DOJ’s China Initiative. These findings highlight the importance of policy predictability and political stability for retaining both star inventors and the broader inventive workforce.













